Report Compiled: 2020-05-16

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: 963407b Max Data Date: 2020-05-15

NYT Repo Commit: 8e124db Max Data Date: 2020-05-15

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-26 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 890.4407 1308.3323 2057.1646
2020-06-26 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 708.9988 1098.7608 2294.2734
2020-06-26 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 1374.4982 1948.3951 2949.0420
2020-06-26 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 965.3224 1651.2410 3341.3432
2020-06-26 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 629.8637 1222.7642 2841.3206
2020-06-26 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 824.3667 1600.5713 3936.3112
2020-06-26 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 1256.9782 2060.8297 3458.3478
2020-06-26 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 1138.9607 2023.8450 6405.5973
2020-06-26 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 608.9294 1041.2706 1791.4059
2020-06-26 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 672.2245 1025.5431 2244.8835
2020-06-26 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 1273.5215 1944.7995 3191.6694
2020-06-26 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 985.8797 1813.6046 5506.4129
2020-06-26 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 615.1257 978.2301 1651.3615
2020-06-26 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 567.0018 873.4589 1699.0309
2020-06-26 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 1328.7799 1822.2697 2918.7979
2020-06-26 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 998.0348 2322.6827 5490.7104
2020-05-30 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 405.2589 532.2592 702.0903
2020-05-30 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 457.1096 607.7774 770.9242
2020-05-30 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 522.7927 635.6270 772.0687
2020-05-30 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 464.1133 602.5282 806.0690